Monday, May 12, 2008

West Virginia Preview

Obama fans like myself should probably look for something else to do tomorrow night. Watching election results won't be nearly as fun as last week. The only satisfaction we'll have is knowing that after the night is over Obama will still be ahead in pledged delegates, superdelegates, states won and popular votes won.

Not only does West Virginia have exactly the kind of demography that has supported Clinton in Ohio and PA -older voters, working poor whites, Catholics, racist crackers, but there also seems to be a high quotient of West Virginia voters who are absolutely convinced Obama is a foreign national, a Muslim, or even a terrorist. The best explanation for this is a high level of illiteracy, along with lack of Internet access, newspaper distribution or news broadcasts in the state. It makes you wonder if they'll be able to find anyone in the state with the aptitude to count the votes.

All the recent polls show Clinton winning by a more than 2-1 margin, 60-24 according to a Suffolk poll conducted on May 10-11; 56-27 according to a Rasmussen poll conducted May 4. Fortunately, Bill Clinton has done us the favor of establishing the expectation for Hillary's success when he urged West Virginia voters to make sure Hillary wins with 80% of the vote , or even 90% according to one state official.

Polls close at 7:30pm Eastern, so expect the networks to call it for Clinton by about, oh, 4:30 here on the West Coast. There are only 28 delegates at stake, so Hillary should not come away with more than about a 6-7 delegate net gain. Obama will probably pick up at least that many superdelegates in the following day or two.

1 comment:

Lynn said...

Unfortunately the ones with internet access are probably even more dangerous. Those chain e-mails are the source of a lot of those moronic rumors about Obama being a Muslim, the ringleader of 9/11, the anti-Christ, or just an uppity N-word.

I agree with you about John Edwards--I wish he would do one fine thing and campaign for Obama. I used to think Elizabeth was his better half, but if she's so blind that she hasn't jumped the Hillary ship yet, then she's lost me. But I'll give her the benefit of the doubt and imagine that the cancer has spread to her brain. Ouch--that's nasty, even for me!

I like how Carville is now saying there's a "great likelihood" that Obama will be the nominee. Um, yeah. Tonight's results notwithstanding.